Due to the decrease in the transportation of PPE and passengers, the global market for freight transportation will experience its most challenging year by 2021 amid the Covid-19 pandemic. However, based on the analyses conducted by Transport Intelligence, it is anticipated that it will be able to recover in the upcoming years (Ti).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its 2022 expectations considering developments regarding a Covid-19 vaccine, stating that the global economy may reach levels seen before Covid the following year. Even though the purchase of goods and services was seen to be affected in the year 2021, it is anticipated that consumer demand for 2022 will increase in comparison to the global recession of 2009.
The growth of unemployment has been constrained by state assistance, keeping consumer spending moderate. This presents an opportunity because of the economic growth dynamic, which is a good sign for a quick recovery in the freight transportation industry. According to TI, between 2010 and 2020, economic growth was faster. This increase had been greater in previous decades, but since then, the trend toward globalization has slowed down.
This multiplier should reach 1.2 between 2021 and 2024, according to the IMF, thanks to a robust trade recovery in 2022. The transport capacity constraint has had an impact on the markets for air and ocean freight transport in 2021–2022. Alliances of shipping lines were able to cooperate, but the pandemic’s reduction in capacity has caused rates to reach record highs globally.
It is highly likely that the trend toward relatively high prices will continue. However, despite the possibility of continuing, this would spur transportation professionals to become more inventive by utilizing alternate modes of transportation such as sea-air.
Even though many airlines will keep a large portion of their passenger aircraft fleets on land in 2021, this has the unintended consequence of perpetuating a capacity shortage for cargo transportation. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the lack of capacity has caused transportation agents to move to other modes of transportation through September 2021, which could have a negative impact on the return of aerial cargo flights.
Due to capacity restrictions, it is unlikely that air transportation will have a significant increase in 2022. After the global economy collapsed to its lowest levels in April and May of 2020. The shipping industry and shipping representatives felt a more distinct an increment in the waves.
To the contrary, it may be likely that the manufacturing and automotive industries will support maritime and air transportation in 2022, while the pharmaceutical industry will continue to have positive growth. Auto sales decreased by about 25-30% in the first half of 2021, but it is predicted that they will rebound to around 17% for the entire year.
This indicates the industries’ recovery, and the growth trajectory for 2021–2022 has been established. Given that volumes transported by air are projected to increase because of the introduction of a number of vaccinations. IATA calculated that it would take 8,000 B747 cargo flights to transport a single dose of medication to 7.8 billion people.
Other forms of transportation, such as land and train, which may be employed on a local and regional basis, are not included in this. But it’s crucial to keep in mind that having the required air freight capacity is essential for providing coverage worldwide.
On the other hand, the dramatic increase in worldwide volumes produced by electronic commerce has contributed to a shortage of space in transportation. However, it is anticipated that it will continue beyond 2021. This industry clearly shows signs of growth in the coming years.
We should expect to see a moderate growth in air travel between 2021 and 2024. In the same way that everything is expected to be normal, it is anticipated that maritime transportation would experience an increase in volume during the same period. The speed of recovery in the case of air transportation will depend, in large part, on the restart of passenger travel.
